The Rajko Mitić
Matchdays 7–8

The preseason prediction had Železničar 16th. By matchday 7 they were sitting on 10 points in 7th place, and nobody had updated the mental model. Pushed the defensive line higher for the first time — thinking a bottom side at home was the right game to experiment. Got exposed within 17 minutes.

Went to half time 0-1 down with zero shots on target. Changed passing to Standard — not full possession, not full Route One, a blend of both. It changed the game. Vukajlović equalised at 57 minutes, assisted by Skrobonja. The left back. The equaliser came from the left back.

Lesson filed: Železničar were not a bottom side. Check the actual table before setting the line. A point from a game that should have been approached differently is still a point.

Bruno Duarte scored at 7 minutes. Vulić equalised at 10 — a counter attack from deep, the mid block doing exactly what it was built to do, Miletić threading through, Vulić arriving to finish. 1-1 at the Rajko Mitić with ten minutes played.

Arnautović made it 2-1 at 30 minutes. Crvena Zvezda were the better side throughout the first half. 76% possession. Eight shots on target. The xG graph was a flat red line punctuated by two vertical jumps in red that represented our goals.

Then. 49th minute. Balević launched a distribution. Skrobonja ran onto it. Skrobonja finished. 2-2.

That was it. Mid block held. Laban came on around the hour, added composure when composure was needed. Crvena Zvezda threw everything at the final twenty minutes. Eight, ten shots, multiple close calls. Balević made the saves that needed making. Full time whistle.

Two goals from an xG of 0.38. That is the counter-attacking system working at its theoretical maximum. Every shot on target converted. Every clearance made. The goalkeeper distributing for one of the goals. The 17-year-old keeper, on £100 per week, in front of 40,000 Crvena Zvezda supporters, getting an assist.